ATP Rome best bets including Rune vs Baez

ATP Rome 1/16 Finals

Paul – Koepfer: 13.05.2024 15:00 CEST
H2H: 2-1

Tommy Paul has lost three of its last five games. As an American, Paul rarely plays on the clay courts. He has also not achieved any notable results on clay so far in his young career. Last year Paul lost his first match against Garin in three sets in Rome. This is his second clay tournament of the season. Paul won his first match against the out-of-form Karatsev in straight sets. Although he didn’t lose his serve, Paul struggled and had to save nine break points.

Dominik Koepfer had previously suffered five consecutive losses in Rome. These losses drop Dominik out of the top 50. However, so far he has shown some great tennis here in Rome. In the first round, Koepfer won in straight sets against Vavassori. Koepfer then completely dominated against Frances Tiafoe and won easily 6-4 6-2. Dominik played aggressively from the start and it paid off for him. Last year, Koepfer played most of his matches at challenger tour level, which is why he didn’t play in Rome.

Best bet to make

According to the bookmakers, Koepfer is a slight underdog in this match. However, Tommy Paul did not show much on the clay this season. We believe Koepfer is a better clay court player and that he will win this match.

That being said, Winning Koepfer is a worthwhile bet.

Value bet/best odds: Dominik Koepfer wins @2.20 @bet365

Baez – Rune: 13.05.2024 16:00 CEST
H2H: 2-2

Sebastian Baez has lost three of its last five games. Based on his performance on the clay court alone, he is in the top 20. Here in Rome, Baez won his second round match against Lajovic in two tight sets. Baez couldn’t hold his serve, but on his return he was perfect. Before the ATP Masters 1000 Rome, Baez reached the 1/16 finals in Madrid, where he lost to Fritz in straight sets. Before Madrid, Baez had three consecutive defeats and couldn’t do much on his favorite surface.

Holger Rune has won three of his last five matches. So far this season, the young Dane has struggled with consistency and confidence. His inconsistency also led to him falling out of the top 10 of the rankings. Last year in Rome, Rune had a great run, beating Djokovic and Casper Ruud. However, he could not win the title as he lost to Medvedev in straight sets. A few days ago, Rune won easily in straight sets against Luca Nardi. He secured a break in each set, leading him to a 6-4 win.

Best bet to make

Looking at their head-to-head matches, Baez won both times on the clay. We believe he will cause Rune big problems in this match. According to the bookmakers, Baez is an underdog. We’re not sure if Baez can upset Rune, but we think he’ll easily cover the game’s handicap.

That being said, Baez covering the game’s handicap is a worthwhile bet.

Value bet/best odds: Baez +3.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365

Main photo credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports